So as not to put the cart before the horse, it is worth...

So as not to put the cart before the horse, it is worth remembering that there are two things going on here - a demerger and then potentially an acquisition of one of the demerged components by private venture capital.

The first is not contingent on the second, but the second is contingent on the first.

If the Court approves the scheme of arrangement, the demerger seems likely to get up on the numbers. However, the acquisition is not guaranteed to go ahead, given uncertainty about voting intentions.

On the forecast timeline, there will be shareholder meetings on 24 August to consider first the demerger and then the acquisition.

Assuming the demerger gets up, there will be an economic separation of the two entities on 31 August, which is also the last allowable date for release of the AMA draft accounts. As mentioned previously, the timing for this is curious, given that shareholders need to have this information in advance of the shareholder meeting on 24 August in order to make an informed judgment.

The Second Court date for the demerger scheme is set for 10 September. The directors are banking on the Court approving a shareholder vote at the 24 August meeting.

Let's assume the shareholders voted in favour of demerger. If the Court approves the demerger, then ACAD shares will begin trading from 12 September on a deferred settlement basis. AMA shares will still be trading at full price so for a few days people will see how the balances are turning out.

From 17 September, AMA will trade without the demerger entitlement. That suggests on current indications that the share price will drop to 86c or so, if there has been no change to the bid.

On 21 September, ACAD shares will begin trading on a normal basis. Trades executed previously on a deferred settlement basis will now be settled.

21 September is also the Second Court date for the acquisition scheme. Let's assume shareholders voted on 24 August in favour of the acquisition of the demerged AMA.

If the Court approves the acquisition, then 24 September will be the effective date for the acquisition. AMA shares will cease to trade on 28 September. On 4 October, Blackstone acquires all AMA shares and payment is made to shareholders. AMA is delisted on 5 October.

Since it is not a given that the acquisition will proceed, all of this later timing is hypothetical. If the Blackstone bid is rejected by shareholders, then two entities - AMA and ACAD - will continue to be listed on the ASX for a longer period than indicated by the timeline. If that were to occur, then day-to-day operations would continue pretty much as normal in AMA (the panel division) and ACAD (the other businesses).

This is just to remind that grey areas do exist and nothing much may be presumed at this early stage. Better in my opinion to watch the situation and await the next step which is the lodgement of the draft demerger scheme booklet with ASIC, forecast for 28 June.