You are right in your analysis that at the moment there are many...

You are right in your analysis that at the moment there are many things in the world which can go wrong. It is also true that a lot of investors, at the moment, are (very) optimistic about the near future growth based upon the spending boom of Mr. Trump. My biggest worry is about the uncontrollable debt in the world. Especially in the USA. It will collapse, but the timing is very, very difficult to predict.

As a shareholder of NST I allways have 3 options: do nothing, buy more or sell the stock. I tend to base my decisions on a valuation framework which has to work in good and more difficult times (like now). Actually it is a simple framework, but I like it that way. It is based on the generation of free cash-flow. The true foundation of every company. How is NST doing in this perspective? There are around 600 mln. shares outstanding. For the FY 17 and 18 they are budgeting on 500.000 OZ in 17 and 600.000 for the FY 18. Because of the track record of the management of NST I have no reason to doubt these figures. There is no debt outstanding (if there is debt I always assume that this has to be redeemed over a period of 5 years, say 20% for every year. I deduct these as "cash-outflow" from the free cash-flow, all on a per share basis). The AISC for FY is around A$ 1025,-. I assume the same for FY 18, although I think it will be a bit lower of the increased production for that year). The POG is always the current price, for now A$ 1.595,-.
On a pro-rata basis this means a gross cash-flow margin of 1.595,- -/ 1.025,- = A$ 570,- per OZ. By selling an average of 550.000 OZ for the two years per year it means a total free cash-flow of 550.000 x 570,- = A$ 313,5 mln. per year. Per share this means a free cash-flow of 313,5/600 = A$ 0,52.
The next questions is, what is the cash-flow PE I demand for a stock like NST. There is of course no absolute truth in this but I work with a bandwidth of around 10 times (it will be higher for smaller miners and lower for example barrack gold). So a needed free cash-flow yield of 100/10 = 10% per annum. Somebody else will demand higher or less off course. A free cash-flow PE of 10 gives a fair valuation, right now, of 10 x 0, 52 = A$ 5,20, some 43% above the current valuation. If the POG changes the calculation can be done again very easily. For now NST is valued attractively. Name me other shares, outside of the PM sector, with such solid figures. Because of the function of Gold in the (near) future when the debt crisis returns again, I find NST a valuable part of my portfolio.
You can do the same calculations for every miner off course. I hope it will give some investors a bit of steady ground in a hectic world.