Am I missing Something?

AOK has fallen along with the WTI oil price as have other oil stocks however at current levels and recent announcement i thought the SP would at least push back up into 20's?

As far as i can tell:
- 1P PV10 would still be near $338M (with oil prices hedged at $86 per barrell), 2P at $446M
- Fully funded through MacQuarrie
- Gas infrastructure completed
- Next quarter output should be significantly higher

Now given hedging in place to 2016 a fall in oil price is likely to push out weaker competitors leaving upside potential due to reduced supply in the future. If oil strength returns then AOK has leverage into expansion plans due to increased acreage with funding to increase pace of expansion.

Are there any risks i am not seeing here?

Cheers