This WCL thread has certainly been "manned" by a group of people who know their stuff!!
JGPM has summed up the upside scenario well. Especially if you take the view that in the case where Landbridge have the option to buy on-market cheaper than 40 cents and there are no other bidders, there is more risk of downside than upside. Especially as liquidity dries up!
Better to put a floor on your price IMO. It is certainly true that if Landbridge sell into another bid, you only get 40 cents. Again is it likely Landbridge wont pay higher if forced then go on to win any battle? They have at least 36 percent at bargain based averages compared to any rival and have flagged they reserve the right to increase their bid if another bidder materialises.
I am equally disappointed NHC sold off the way they did. They must have done it for a reason though. Who bloody knows? But in the end of the day if 40 cents is good enough for every major shareholder in WCL, then how can we judge any differently?
Jake, you are right and thank you for reminding us that if you accept the landbridge offer, and they keep extending and extending, it doesn't matter - you are guaranteed payment in one month after you accept or sooner (They will likely get over 51% quickly and may want to close it all off faster by guaranteeing quicker payment for all those who accept, 5-10 days for example then you get paid sooner and no brokerage).
I would prefer 40 cents than to go down funding and development risk anyday!
Cheers,
WCL Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held