" Who knows ??? " - is quite right. as time progresses, the...

" Who knows ??? " - is quite right.
as time progresses, the options and scenarios diminish.
Mitsubishi only lodged the Sub S/H Notice because they own over 20% of Morgan Stanley it seems. MS are a hedge type fund - short term trader.
Having said that, my experience with the Japanese, is that they follow the other Japanese. It's a comfort thing. Whilst I really don't think it is the case here, who is to say that Mitsubushi would not take a blocking stake in WCL because they are watching Mitsui on the other side, sitting there with a 49% interest in the J/V? If Meridian and the GSA is valuable to Mitsui, why not to Mitsubishi? I think MS will simply look for a s/t exit.

Scout - if LB get to 90% they will compulsorily acquire the other 10% to get to 100%.
If LB reach less than 90%, it will all depend on how many shares are left in the hands of minority shareholders, and just how many shareholders are left. The more minorities the better.

Whilst some s/h believe its "all over red rover" - that virtually certainly applies to any rival t/o. Appear there is no chance of a rival offer now.
But as far as every single WCL s/h losing his right to retain his shares in WCL, it is simply NOT the case.

Existing s/h can retain their shares - it's your prerogative - not LB's right.

Remember a couple of things:
- LB have acquired their 36% at 40c without being provided with ANY DUE DILIGENCE!
- so it seems, they have been prepared to outlay $178m using the same info as you and I have access to
- they (and we s/h) have not been provided with any Independent Expert report to establish a value - so LB have done their own research, and waded into WCL. WHY?
- the WCL Board has recommended acceptance, only because the LB offer is the only one available, and because they believe that LB will gain control!. NOT because LB are offering a fair price. Big difference. SO what they seem to be saying is, if you don't want to be invested in a company controlled by an offshore Chinese company with no CSG experience, then accept the offer.
- BUT, WCL still has 51% of a contract potentially worth $4.3Billion in revenue over 20yrs to a blue chip GLNG.
- WCL still has uncontracted 2P reserves plus plenty of 3P
- WCL is sitting next door to Mungi field which had material 3P reserves on same dirt as Meridian --- Petro owns Mungi and would need WCL to develop their field.
- no-one can convince me there is not some sort of plan that a LB controlled WCL will not come to an arrangement with Petro re Mungi! Petro spent $42m on MPO assets, which are stranded without WCL experience and infrastructure.
- where will LNG get their gas for F/L? could it be from Mungi and WCL excess reserves? Funding no problem because Petro is in the mix.
- if WCL remains listed on ASX, WCL must by law be operated/governed in the best interests of the company and ALL its shareholders.

So again, the point is, if one still likes the WCL story, it is up to individual s/h to sell or hold.
If we hold, and LB does not get to 90%, then all that happens is the WCL suddenly gets a new single controlling s/h.
If there are several hundred s/h remaining, and a "reasonable spread" of shares, then WCL should still remain listed.
SP might drop because Offer of 40c may have closed.
So answer is, if we don't accept offer, we lose opportunity to get 40c, LB could get to a point just under 90% where it can convince the ASX to delist WCL, and of course the SP might drop after LB offer closes.
Offer now closes on 22 July, so some time to consider one's position still.
Interesting to see what MS and Senigan do.
Surely they and hedgies are buying at 39c-39.5c and will take tiny profit and sell into bid?
Your call -
It's almost over red-rover, but Rover is currently sitting down, and having a scratch!
cheers