A2M 0.88% $5.60 the a2 milk company limited

In the US, I don't expect the numbers to greatly exceed...

  1. 28 Posts.
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    In the US, I don't expect the numbers to greatly exceed expectations. The expected growth was aggressive and I would consider a slight revenue beat to be a success. It's a given that they will be able to announce an increase in US store count. The key will be in the guidance, and I think there are a couple things we could hear that would be cause for optimism beyond what's built in to expectations:
    1) They have officially entered the Midwest region (this is fact to at least some extent, as we've noticed A2M expansion into high volume grocers) and beyond which will allow them to forecast continued high growth of US revenue. Would like to see the US map they use in presentations to elevate a majority of "limited distribution" geographies to "broad distribution", with few remaining "no distribution" states.
    2) Last half of 2018 they entered Walmart and Costco on a regional basis (only the Southeast I believe). Will be an excellent sign for A2M if they are able to continue rolling out to additional regions in those chains. Costco, especially, has very high sell-thru requirements to become a mainstay and is an excellent barometer for overall traction of a brand. Again, national availability would be a huge win.

    On the contrary, if the US story is a continuation of past announcements (sales and brand continue to grow, store count increased by 3000 and plan to continue marketing investment), then I don't think the US will be a catalyst to the share price over the next 6 months.

    Elsewhere, I'm hoping for something exciting coming from the Fonterra agreement. At the time of the announcement they talked about the potential to distribute infant to Other Asia and Middle East and to "develop new non-infant products globally". It's been a year now and in November they signaled additional announcements were coming. They could add optimism to the partnership by moving beyond incremental growth of the fresh milk license.

     
 
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