1H13 net profit was already down 12.3% before CCL needed to...

1H13 net profit was already down 12.3% before CCL needed to downgrade the full year 2013 twice! CCL is betting its competitive issues will be soothed over the remaining half and summer.

CCL's earnings numbers and high p/e haven't been stacking up. Buying CCL on a p/e over 20 has risks. Holders have not really been compensated for the earnings uncertainty with a lower p/e. Downgrading twice, with the SP falling 20% and the p/e stills sticks at over 20!

The Indonesian growth option is unfortunately not the key driver of CCL's earnings. The largest, mature Australian market may be giving CCL a bad taste of continuing trading and discounting warfare that dents its monopolistic attributes and traditional licence to print money.