All a matter of timing !, page-9

@contraindicator Good Day Sir, You won't see Cameco go broke. A excellent run company that can't make money in this unrealistically priced market. They will survive and according to Rick Rule, in the last top of the U cycle in 2007 there was 500 or so primary Uranium jnrs/producers/explorers publicly listed and by the end of 2016 it was like 30. That in itself, is a wash out.

As for PDN i am considering taking a nice chunk, that i can forward to lose. I was in RSG in 2015, similar set up, and grabbed a 7x, that eventually went x11 from top to bottom. If U climbs to mid 30s, and PDN raise 75mUSD/100mAUD, along with extended debt holders out to 2020 and beyond, it could be lucrative. I believe they will sell that 25% in Heinrich on the back of U optimism in 2017 to raise another 175mUSD. Cash costs are coming down as they stopped adding the 4.5usd per pound of debt payments to their ASIC, with this new structure.

PDN's EV

Existing MC A$157m
New 2022 Bonds A$153m
New 2024 Bonds A$136m
New equity swap A$193m
New equity issue A$100m

EV post transaction (include cash from new issue) would be A$739m of which A$100m would be cash (assume PDN's US$27.6m as at 1/10/16 is largely exhausted).

For A$739m you get:

- 75% of Heinrich Langer (producing 3.8m - 4.0m lb pa)
- 100% of Kayelekera (mine on care and maintenance)
- 100% of Michelan project (development project)
- Various other geological assets
- A$100m in cash
And as of today i read they just sold 30% of a mine for 10mUSD.


PDN by Market Cap thus ignoring their crazy dilution has peaked around 4.5 to 5.3B MC in U bull markets.

Uranium SPOT in this time



Above shows PDN tracks Uranium and is a slave to price swings. Making it a leverage bet on the rise or fall of uranium.

If they can achieve 4millions pounds at average 30dollars minus 20dollars costs in 2017 10USD profit x 4m = 40m pre tax profit, which isn't a bad start. Plus potential sale of mines etc, PDN is worth a punt IN MY OPINION. I will wait for the URA to play out.

URA

accumulation zone is between 14.71 -14.00. If URA breaks downs here means it was a false start, if buying comes in and we break above 17 then 28-30 in 2017 could be seen. This dip will be the test.