cheers,pwuhere's a idiots valuation on the retail side of...

cheers,pwu

here's a idiots valuation on the retail side of 6oo,ooo x$870= (what someone else paid for retail customers in 2007)

but even at $600 per customer,given the state price controls(as one analysis in a newspaper said in june) that adds upto $360m or so.So value is somewhere between that and $500m.(40,000 new ones x $600 to $870 =$24-$35million improvement in west Australian retail business value either way)

what i'd really like to know is how many retail cutomers they have in Victoria(Neighbourhood Energy),because i suspect that's a hidden gem,staying under the wire and a hell of a larger market to grow into.Has anyone got the figures-all i can see is it is over 5,000,because it is included in an energy scheme(minimum requirement)

All real news seems to be good news.

an extra 40,000 customers giving you say $300+ a year more than you get as a wholesaler of power =$12m+ onto the bottom line annualy(profit).

i can't wait for the 6 monthly,i suspect a few pleasant surprises.

cheers management---Keep adding value and coin to the purse.Keep smiling and saying ---IS THAT SO--- while you make that money pile grow.

lets get radical here and work out the next 12mo income2011.
If Alinta stays in one piece starting EBITDA should be the same
$288m + $12m+ say from new retail customers
+ $10m+ improvement due to Braemar toll agreemt
+ $20m+ in recovered gas pass thru(price rises)
+ $20m+ extra for power gen with coal at cost
+ $5m+ redfern power station(performance) sorted
i.e. another $67m plus $288=$355m-$240m interest=$115m to pay down debt.I suspect it may be even better than this.

no wonder the wolves and hedge funds are circling.

what's a company worth that makes $115m free cash-a bit more than $50m me thinks-----oops and that $115m paid down of course will save you another $10m in interest from then on.

keep smiling and look for the silver lining amongst the dark clouds