A minimum assigned value per customer would be $700, making this asset alone worth around $420m. However, $700 is leaning heavily towards the cheap side, given that in some geographic areas Alinta have no competition, and that the underlying business is quite sound, save for the debt load they carry from a previous life.
Further, all new offshore gas projects in WA must release at least 15% of their production for state consumption, which means there's going to be room for infrastructure and distribution growth
In short, serious valuation models for Alinta should be based on expected future earnings, whereas quite a bit of the discussion here centres on current earnings. A flawed methodology indeed if one is looking for a landing spot on where the share price will get to
AEJ Price at posting:
5.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
