Winx-1 well is different things to each JV partner. While very...

Winx-1 well is different things to each JV partner. While very important for each partner at this particular juncture in time, IMO it is a company maker (or near existential threat) for RMP and a mere means to an end (or a missed opportunity) for OEL and for 88E. The relative number of shares on issue for each JVpartner is vastly different, and hence we will see a different impact on share price in either the success or fail scenarios.

However, the near term SP impact (in the success case) will be dwarfed by the longer term i‘mpact for OEL and 88E once the market is able to understand and value what has been unlocked by a material discovery. More than just the cash value. OEL holders will understand this.

In 88E’s case the options to further explore IW conventional as well as unconventional, on our own coin, and hence with less top line early stage dilution (ie farmout) will have a significant multiplier effect (IMO) through the retained value of those plays (under a success scenario). Those will be our company makers, irrespective of our retained value, but there will be a difference between huge and humongous.

And let’s not forget, that Winx s not the only ‘means to an end’ in our kitty bag.  There is also YG.  Indeed, a success scenario based transaction here, along with Winx success, provides the BoD options beyond what I should allow myself to credibly consider. For instance not only have significant funds to reduce FO dependency at early stage acreage appraisal, but also return funds to SH either via special dividend or share buy back.

And of course, the IW prize pool could consist of over 4 billion bbls nett to 88e (pre any FO) across the conventional and unconventional horizons.

The extent that the SP reflects any of these options as they get unlocked, is the great unknown to me. However, I have little doubt that opportunities to trade or ride this will be there. My point though, is that the SP, for 88e is unlikely to reflect the true value of a successful Winx, in the near term. It’s value as an enabler of something far, far greater - but not without risk, including discovery risk and appraisal risk.

All IMO.