By ALQ you mean AHY yea? btw, I did thought ALS [the lab/testing...

By ALQ you mean AHY yea? btw, I did thought ALS [the lab/testing business] was pretty reasonable but thought the timing wasn't right and it'd get more reasonable... then some takeover offer and dam it.

So that's another example of my timing estimate.

I don't detail the case so people would listen and do as I say and such. As long as you've looked carefully into AHY and consider the issue I thought are important... conclusion is of course yours. And seriously, I hope I'm wrong and those who want to support Australian manufacturing and just make a reasonable return on their investment get to keep it with Asaleo.



Another interesting point to consider is AHY's management share transaction during FY2015.

FY2015 was when mgt decided to buy back the company's stocks. They got a loan to help pay for that $100m "capital management" initiative too.

During the same FY2015, practically all key executives and the board sold about 1/3 to 1/2 of their holdings.

From memory, they announced the re-purchase in late August 2015.

So something great and exciting must have happened between the time they sold and the decision to buy back. With the benefit of 14 months in advance of that announcement, nothing great seem to have happened that would cause mgt to sell and soon after get the company to take out a loan to buy back stocks they just sold on their personal accounts.

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The Sept. 2017 collapse was conditioned on no banks and lenders would re-finance or extend the loan.

It is to drive home the point that if AHY cannot continue to refiance and borrow [do both, i.e. borrow to repay the debt plus increase borrowing at each re-financing to pay for dividends etc.]... without financing it will collapse.

But yes, cheap credit and personal charms might get it renewed. So who knows. And like I also pointed to, SCA has a great deal of interest to keep AHY alive, so it will probably be alive for a while yet. But I wouldn't put money on its share going anywhere up, ever really.

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The investment premise that a company is good because it sell products we all use and need is a false one.

We all need a house to live in; we are apparently all buying houses and apartments... some property companies do go broke even during this boom. And many property developers have got broke when a bit of stress is put on its business. There are countless other examples.

So while we all use toilet paper and tissues etc., most of us don't much care for the brand, not even the quality so much either - especially during tough economic times and the mortgage is eating into whatever family budget is left and job insecurity is pretty high up there.

That and it's the supermarket wars that's going to hurt Asaleo, not helps it.

When the retail giants goes to war for market share, they don't do it through helping their suppliers be more profitable - they do it thru discounts, and will pass that cost onto their suppliers, further squeezing them.

They'd probably be more ruthless to suppliers that starts to do business with the enemy. I mean, you'd probably want to single out the guys that suppliers to all sides... one, so they will have less profit and cannot pass the savings onto your competitor. You'd want the supplier to be so close to broke that they cannot give the other guys any special deal.

Anyway, hope the holders do well and get to laugh at my "analysis".