AHY Price Action, page-32

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Sailor101

140 Posts.

24/07/16

12:01

Post #: 18347656

Originally posted by MarkieMills ↑

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9

1 AHY Receipts rec excl gst net receipts net rec excl gst listing expenses adj net receipts (excl GST)   Revenue

2 2012 691.6 628.7 124.5 113.2   113.2   622

3 2013 687.2 624.7 124.5 113.2   113.2   624.3

4 2014 689.4 626.7 63.0 57.3 30.5 87.8   629.9

5 2015 693.7 630.6 139.4 126.7   126.7   622.2

6 2016 - guess - by averaging 2014 and 2015         107.3

The numbers above use details from the last few years financials. There may have been a Zag Zig, where net cashflow was diverted from FY14 to FY15. I may also be nuts - so DYOR.

Equating EBITDA with net receipts excl GST => Knock $19m off their U EBITDA 15 and you get $126m
adj NPBT => 87.7
adj NPAT 15 @ 30% tax => 61.4m.

Unpat target based on FY 16 guidance is about 64.7m approx. So my back of envelope calcs very roughly add up - wish I had a bit more time.

This is not a growth company at all IMO. It is a shrinking company most likely with no top line growth, and little ability to extract costs out of the business. If I am right this has something in common with SPO, DSH etc.

I have had very little time to focus on this - so may be missing something very big here - so DYOR and don't rely on my back of the envelope calcs.

Expand

If incontinence pads are not a growth industry I will give up on this investing lark

AHY Price at posting: $1.51 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add AHY (ASX) to my watchlist

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 9
1	AHY	Receipts	rec excl gst	net receipts	net rec excl gst	listing expenses	adj net receipts (excl GST)	Revenue
2	2012	691.6	628.7	124.5	113.2		113.2	622
3	2013	687.2	624.7	124.5	113.2		113.2	624.3
4	2014	689.4	626.7	63.0	57.3	30.5	87.8	629.9
5	2015	693.7	630.6	139.4	126.7		126.7	622.2
6	2016 - guess - by averaging 2014 and 2015						107.3

AHY Price Action, page-32

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