I attended the AGM and was reassured by MM's apparent excitement at the lung & metastatic bladder results. It seems to me that Viralytics is turning the corner from a company that has to chase others (can we please please please try a combo with your PD-1/PD-L1 drug) to one that is chased by the "late to market" PD-1/PD-L1 crowd to give them a leg-up.
I believe the recent results are changing the game for Cavatak - it's no longer a question of where we sit in the cascade of melanoma treatment, fighting for a smaller and smaller piece of that pie, but rather we are demonstrating:
a) Cavatak makes everything better (like bacon, but a life-saving version). To be more specific, Cavatak is lifting everybody's results (CTLA-4, PD-1, IDO) and doing it with no worse (and sometimes much better) safety profile.
b) Cavatak is effective for cancers other than melanoma, in fact moving WAY up the food chain with lung, and expanding breadth pretty significantly with bladder. It's now not hard to imagine that there will be other targets that Cavatak will boost efficacy against.
c) Cavatak is also very effective via IV.
d) Cavatak is resulting in durable responses.
Now to my frustration with this company... I don't see a clearly stated strategy to "show me the money". MM keeps saying "it is about collecting the data" but he doesn't explain what the company's strategy is, and therefore he can't be measured against that by shareholders. When it takes what seems forever since a highly successful phase 2b trial, and there is still really no clear path to market explained...
I don't think MM does a great job of explaining what data he is hoping to collect, and where the inflection point is that will add major value (I think it is the demonstration of efficacy via IV and primarily for lung cancer, but who knows?).
MM seemed to hint that there are (probably highly informal) offers/discussions from pharma to run trials, but they may be on intolerable terms, my speculation is offering low up-fronts but wanting to lock up rights. I feel very frustrated that he won't set expectations more clearly about what he and the BOD are looking for in terms of partnership/buyout.
VLA Price at posting:
70.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held