The information an "analysis "you are peddling is so inaccurate and mind numbingly wrong it is hard to know where to start.
"Ok, makes sense to put it all here. Lots of wonderful info everywhere, and after this operational update, let's put all our hive mind to analyse the future for AEB: opportunities, risks, forecasts (and yes, I don't mention feelings, it's not that useful):
Change: Looking at past, present and future and the pivotal moments for AEB
A change in industry direction, from biofuel/ algae the business is pivoting to medicinal cannabis/ Hemp: it can be seen through investments, responses to Q&A and updates.
- that change is so obvious, Asx has issued a notice to AEB about re-qualifying their industry (part of yesterday's update) Business like BDA are falling over themselves to be reclassified, so it's a good sign it's the other way around"
Reclassification - please look at rules so you understand
"- SP has been much higher, that means the potential to come back to prices the market has already seen before.
SP high a high of 0.542 Back in 2012. Volumes were lower, but is the company now better of than then? Long term this is good.
Now short term, you had a plateau at about 0.06. Now this is also very good, and at 0.02 that definitely made me consider entering.
View attachment 939268
Look at when volumes and direction of SP is moving? "
Oh dear- let me see - so that graph takes into account the market cap of the company and shares on issue ?
"It's since they're reorientated the business into MC.
Medical cannabis and hemp, are hugely synergistic with their existing business."
Syngeries with existing business? You might just want to rethink their existing business and the way it has been managed and return to shareholder? There existing business obviously can';t be core business if they are going about the process of changing purpose and classification of company.
Without MC, I wouldnt be a AEB shareholder, and I'm not the only one. Not only it's a huge industry still extremely young, but the synergies for AEB are huge. That's meaningful change right there.
Ahhh- AEB have had a history of jumping on the bandwagon of the latest thing pumping to attract fresh capital IMO .
The management also is changing. Mal is doing a great, his communication to shareholders, down to thanking us new shareholders, his Q&A, the logical direction of investment in crop/ genetics / MCL, mean AEB could actually leapfrog in a few areas.
Industry:
AEB can technically play in:
Biofuel (Hemp biofuel, potentially hemp + algae super biofuels)
Fibers (from hemp , potentially bio food, compost)
CBD - from hemp / or MC crops
Full MC with CBD. THC and whole plant extracts
Cattle feed: This is potentially a game changer because of the CBD this would pass on to cattle and make the MUCH MORE HEALTHIER. Mammals have endocannabinoid system, cows and so on would become more efficient, less rubbish to pump in them.
Wow just wow- this quasi science is really going overboard with possibly rash statements. just what scientific studies are you referring to?.
Hemp seeds: Potentially leveraging MCL expertise there/ synergies there.
Cannabis genetics and profiling: MC strains are complex, and various strains have various mix of cannabinoids terpenes, and so on, that actually generate different responses. This field will be very important in the future, as MC becomes mainstream and results need to be working for most to be accepted. aka right strain, right posology for each treatment. Now, they had it right in the 50s, so it won't be that complex, it's just that expectations are greater.
Wow just wow again- you do realise that for it to become a human prescription drug there will have to be trials ? They take time. Very few Dr will prescribe prior to then due to risks and insurance etc.
Also synergistic with MCL which has a rich seed bank.
Super food HEMP mix: Adding CBD or hemp into other super food powders, to create the ultimate superfood powders. We know the clean / healthy food trend is not going away, quite the opposite. They could provide gencor some really good stuff anad I'm sure Gencor is aware people want hemp / cbd in their diets (early adopters at least)
Well this is a possibility due to the low hurdles in place for supplements however the minute the supplements contain CBD it is a whole different case due to restrictions. But hemp fibre - yeah what the hell the gullible will buy that and there is a huge gullible market out there who want fibre in a jar..
Hydroponics: this is also a growth sector, whatever expertise they may have could be sold. RGI to me (which I hold obv.) is the best hydroponics play in the ASX (machinery, software and expertise/nutrients)
AEB have simply IMO at every opportunity refused to expand upon and disclose their so called "expertise" in hydroponics. From all released their algae system is nothing particularly special apart from being a closed system able to isolate and grow a specific algae and top prevent contamination however we are yet to see reports on yields and anything verified independently or patents lodged IMO. You may say so what- well that lack of independent verification is IMO what ended years of algae to fuel experiments that they referred to as scaled production but IMO very little production happened or carbon sequestrated. .
Finance:
Public capital raise: Update says AEB has exhausted its capacity under 7.1, aka safe for investors fearing further dilution.
That is just total crap IMO. They will request a meeting and approve a new cycle of capacity and stupid holders will give it to them with no performance hurdles to cross.
Private capital raises: Like the one announced, great outcome. I don't think you invest in AEB with options at 0.04 to sell at 0.05. This will help provide enough for AEB to really lift off.
Look they just effectively raised at 2cents. They have more shares and options on issue than grains of sand on a beach. Unless you know who the people places with shares are and they intent you are talking through your hat. Look into the people who arranged it and it might give you some clues and since there is no escrow restriction on selling there is a overhang that is instantly in profit.
Revenue is coming in, gencor buying the offtake in algae production is great. Don't remember the amount like 1 million of something.
Lets just see what revenue eventuates from sale of goods as what you have written above is wrong.
So pressure on raising capital is about to ease. Great sign the company has more than stabilized, and is actually preparing a hard bounce.
Incorrect as your assumptions are wrong. They are not cash flow positive.
Overall MC industry:
It's a booming sector with a 10 years horizon looking at USD 250Billions globally. Potentially $500 B in my own estimates.
Small companies either become decent players and giants of the future, either they get bought out. Either way, it's a great outcome for shareholders.
MC licence usually valued at 10-30 Million by market (explaining why small businesses have even increased chance to get bought out as is, as bigger players may want to "buy" licenses as a mean to step up production)
Summary: Management doing what 's right, slight shakeup but pivotal new strategy on hemp/ MC which is extremely synergistic with their existing business and skillset. Positioning in huge growth industry, tons of business opportunities which are quite unique for AEB vs. others Asx plays (e.g. hemp biofuel) and hopefully, the same way market wants QBL to ditch old business and seize MC by the horns, I'd venture that the market would want AEB to focus on MC.
I'd predict a price range between 0.1 and 0.5 within 5 years. Yes that's 20X for me. and 10X for people jumping on at 0.05.
Obviously my portfolio speaks for itself - entered Mid to late 2017-. I'm still an early investor, this is only the beginning.
Add your own analysis, Maybe less messy than mine. Let's go
Look just too many motherhood statements and assumption in this for me to contemplate and respond to so all I will say is that when you make a error / assumption and further assumptions are based on that then very quickly your valuations move away from reality and are just hype. Look economists with real data can't get next months interest rate or CPI right and we are doing 10 year predictions? Have AEB done some good things - yes- can they follow through- will keep a eye on them .
