The way I see it, it's the uncerainty of government policy towards energy and renewable energy that is causing the price of IFN to languish whilst at the same time, ironically, cause the price of electricity to skyrocket.
I went to attended an ANU Energy Change Institute event earlier this week to attend an event titled "Will the NEG transform Australia's energy landscape?".
As you'd all know, supporters of renewable energy find it absurd that the NEG, as it currently stands, sets a renewable energy target of 26% cut on 2005 emission level by 2030 is already being met by current projects. So in this regards it's a ridiculous policy.
Shane Rattenbury (Green's minister from the ACT Labor-Greens government) presented at the event. He's been very vocal about his refusal to accept this aspect of the NEG proposal.
Given that the Federal Government requires unanimous COAG support then this will be an issue (particularly because more states and territories are under Labor at the moment). In fact I'm surprised it isn't more of a political football.
My understanding was that MAYBE COAG will accept NEG on the first round of decision making (on Aug 10, I believe) but that the 26% target will absolutely not be agreed to. It certainly won't by Rattenbury, and you only need one of the COAG members to block it.
So with this in mind I truly believe that IFN is priced for a worst case scenario that simply cannot happen. In the meantime, it's operational earnings are very attractive compared to its share price. There will be an accounting hit on the accounts for FY 2017-2018 (due to refnancing costs) but they're behind us now and the earnings moving forward (and less restrictive debt covenants) are awesome.
I'm a long term holder so short term prices shouldn't bother me (even though they do) but the future is looking good.
IFN Price at posting:
64.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
