Your observations are interesting but the opposite of mine!I've...

Your observations are interesting but the opposite of mine!

I've been a buyer of COF for 18months and have sensed that there's a large seller out there who withdraws from time to time.

The price trend over the past few weeks does support your view, but over any longer period the sellers have determined the price on the price-trend chart which I use per ETrade where seller days have outnumbered buyer days by possibly 3:1 (my est)

Although I am concerned about their lack of capital and over reliance interest bearing debt, with the very real problem of rising interest rates, and with their very high pay-out div ratio, COF has sailed through the past few years with reasonable dividend ps and excellent earnings and div yields for shareholders at these prices.

It mystifys me how such excellent yields, both earnings and div, can escape the attention of fund managers who would push the price higher, so it's probably the week balance sheet plus vulnerability to international events. I'm confident that COF is structured to respond quickly to any international downturn.

My COF spreadsheet shows the following:


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

eps 13.30 13.00 10.80 18.00 19.80
dps 16.00 13.00 11.00 12.70 14.00

COF
oct 11
1.05
EarnYield 12.7 12.4 10.3 17.1 18.9
GrDiv Yield 21.6 17.6 14.9 17.2 18.9

Those returns are too good to be true!
But I am still buying and there are some fund managers who have bought-in.