A40 price action, page-282

Shipments for this quarter

1) 18232T - sold at US$880/dmt
2) 5000T - conservatively assume US$700/dmt
3) 12000T - conservatively assume US$700/dmt
4) 10500T - conservatively assume US$700/dmt

Brings lithium revenue for the quarter to about 18232 x US$880 + (5000 + 12000 + 10500) x US$700 = US$35.3m or A$49.4m.
For Tantalum revenue, we know we have shipped 40T on early Feb announcement. Assume we have shipped another 20T, the total tantalum sale would be 60T. 60,000kg = 132277.2lbs. At 30% concentrate, volume = 39683 lbs. Assume only US$70/lbs sale price, tantalum revenue about A$3.89m.

Total revenue (conservatively) will be about A$49.4 + A$3.89 = A$53.3m. Actual revenue is likely to be higher based on a more optimistic scenario. My personal expectation is between A$55m - A$60m based on higher sale price and possible higher tantalum sale volume, though those are still to be confirmed.

According to the quarterly cash flow statement, outgoing for the quarter is estimated to be about A$51.1m. Part of this outgoing is development cost $6m and merger cost $7.5m. So from an operational point of view, operating costs likely to be about $51.1m - $6m - $7.5m = $37.6m.

Operating profit = $53.3m - $37.6m = $15.7m. Personally expecting an operating profit of about $20m for the quarter.

Its no wonder management has decided to repay the $13m loan in last week's announcement. Without the assurance of further near-term sales, they wouldn't dare do that.

Accumulate while you can, when the quarterly is reported end April, people will realise Alliance is a gem.