A40 losing since 5 years, TAW now in their spiral!, page-19

It definitely didn't work out as most would have liked...not just here but sector wide...reasons for it are a combination of a few negative trends (not just energy/renewable sector specific) hitting the markets for an unusually prolonged period.

Selling a good stock now at or very close to the bottom might not be the smartest thing to do, I consider A40 to be in the category of a good stock.

And the probability of SP rising substantially rather than falling substantially are much higher, my thinking:

A40 Specific

* All the negatives of being run by 2 seperate Co's have finally been removed.

* The very high expenses associated with completing the above task are now done with and will not be a burden on our cashflow going forward.

* The limitations and associated risks of having only 1 offtaker with 1st right clauses have now also been removed, some think the adjustments to the buy price is a big negative but I don't think so at all especially if you take into account the freezing of repayment and the initial benefits that Burwill provided us and they are an integral part in us having come this far this fast...I think a lot of ppl underestimate/ have forgotten the speed in which this Co's has gotten to where we are today.

* Stage 2 production level will be achieved at an incredibly low cost of total Capex,  an increase in plant processing capacity from the current 220tph to 300tph, with minimum outstanding debt. For anyone doubting, it might be worth comparing what Capex the other Li produce have to spend for their plants to achieve a 300tph processing capacity and how much debt they will have to repay!

* New offtake announcement is almost a given now an I don't think it will take to long b4 the TH announcement, there is just not that much unspoken, quality Li concentrate available on the market.

* Drill campaign can't be far off, you would have to think it will be announced sooner rather than later, we are coming close to Feb'19 

* After 1s drill results come back (if positive) a stage 3 deal will follow, and as stated numerous times by MC it will be a deal that will have some pre payment/funding attached to it and by then stage 2 will (should be ) in full swing and generating a strong cash flow, therefore the outlook for minimum dilution going forward is fairly good, once again compared to our peers, even though their expansion plans are impressive, I believe a lot of dilution is still coming their way which I don't think is ideal for current holders combined with their extremely high/ long interest repayments they will have to make for years to come.

This is where A40's (TAW) plans to start low/with minimum debt and expand in tandem with market demand will make this a standout investment...and Burwill was an integral part of what has been achieved to date.

Market/sector Specific

* lots of fear of over supply, which IMO will be proven incorrect and IMO is manipulation by some very big players, motivated by various reasons.

* EV sales continue to gain strong momentum...with only a handful of EV models actually available for sale right now, this will change significantly from mid/late this year and accelerating going forward and not just in EV Cars, but almost all transportation.

* LiB's Mega Factory rollout in full swing...We are now at 68 lithium ion battery megafactories in the pipeline. Totalling 1.45TWh / 1,450GWh. This could make 22m EVs a year by 2028. (source:Benchmark Minerals)

* So, 68 Megafactories that are in the pipeline which could supply ~22m EV's per year by 2028, that is a lot of Li (at 6%)...but I still think that number of EV's by 2028 will be eclipsed, if you take into account all Busses, Trucks, Light Commercial, Bikes, Boats, Mining etc...once customers get to test drive the new EVs during the next couple of years and realize all the nice extras that Engineers and Designers will be able introduce into their new lineups, combined with mass production and Government incentives, there is a very slim chance for the ICE's

* However, a big underestimation is the demand that Stationary LiB's will have on Li, G,Ni,Co etc...many still think that other tech, such as Vanadium Redox will capture that market...on paper they make more sense from what data is available to date, the big problem for Vanadium or any other battery chemistry for storage will be the price point...the head start, both in time and sher amount of $$ that have already been spent and will be pend between now and the next few years will make it next to impossible for any other chemistry to beat Lib in the Price/Performance metrics...everyone needs to keep in mind not only the massive $investment that will be needed to build large enough production volumes around the globe but also how long and how much money will need to be invested to build up a large enough supply chain...ie Mines, etc... for LiB's -- that supply chain is already in full swing and $billions have already been invested into this by investors such a us.

Here's one of the best research papers I have found on this subject for those that like some data:

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30583-X

Highlights

•Lifetime cost for 9 storage technologies in 12 applications from 2015 to 2050

•Lowest lifetime costs fall by 36% (2030) and 53% (2050) across the 12 applications

•Lithium-ion batteries are most competitive in majority of applications from 2030

* EV transportation will become cheaper due to cell capacity increasing and sheer volume of both battery production and EV production, especially once all the majors start rolling out EV;s from their high volume production lines, remembering that EV's have ~ a tent of moving parts compared to ICE's = much lower production/material costs.

So for me personally, I can see clear as day that there will be a substantial pressure for Battery Materials for years to come...the benefits of EV's and Storage completely outweigh any possible reasons for it not to succeed, even if cleaner air is not enough for some...the sheer economic benefits will be enough for them to make the switch.

So, don't let emotions dictate your financial decision, do some research and decide for yourself where this is likely to go...for me selling a stock like A40 @ 0.25 is out of the question, but I do actually believe in all that I have written above.

All IMO