A2M Valuation, page-9

"the company already has a 5% market share and increasing it to 10% would only add another ~100m annually to the bottom line."

You've got a major mistake in your analysis here. don't be misled by '5.4%' market share thing. 5.4% market share does NOT equal to 114.4m or whatever. Let me tell you how to calculate this based on HY report.

A2 IF ended up being consumed by Chinese babies consists of 3 components:
1) China label. The revenue is 434.7m * 78.4% * 12% = 40.9m
2) ANZ label CBEC. The revenue is 100m - 40.9m = 59m (100m is approximation of 114.4m China & Other Asia)
3) ANZ label Daigou or similar channel. Revenue generated from ANZ label IF is 434.7m * 78.4% * (1-12%) = 299.9m, and those sold in ANZ is 299.9m - 59m = 240.9m. Assuming 70% goes to Daigou channel based on my observation, which makes the number 240.9m * 70% = 168.6m

So total revenue contributed by Chinese babies is 40.9 + 59 + 168.6 = 268.5m (half year)

if the market share observation for A2M is going from 5% to 10%, I would assume the revenue calculated above would also be double, which adds up 268.5m half year, more than half billion full year.

Also note 5.4% is NOT actual market share but only in tier 1&2 cities. Actual overall share for A2M would be much lower. China IF market in 2018 is estimated A$24b, 5.4% would translate to $1.3b. According to my esitimation A2 overall market share is around 3.5% currently.

What I'm saying is still HUGE potential in China market