A slight head wind, page-4

@JUSTBOB,

Your point about ALF being under-exposed is interesting.

I track all the LIC data I can find. ALF is unique in the LIC space because being underexposed in a rising market and over-exposed in a falling market appears to be their usual position. This is strange when their actual NTA performance is among the best of all of the LICs. I am guessing but this means they are the best at picking stocks.

More precisely, I track all of the market exposure figures. ALF began publishing them in Jan 2006. There is a significantly negative correlation (simple Pearson's correlation) between reported exposure and market performance (ASX300 index) over the next month. The correlation actually gets more negative for the market performance over the next 3 months. No other LIC I follow has this strange result. For example WAM and CAM have a good positive correlation (more exposure ahead of market rises). If you never did stats at University then this is mumbo-jumbo sorry.

As usual, my figures may be dodgy because I type them in myself so do your own research.