API 0.74% $1.35 australian pharmaceutical industries limited

Instead of listening to brokers who's main aim in life is to get...

  1. 8 Posts.
    Instead of listening to brokers who's main aim in life is to get you to transact, how about everyone look at the facts!

    Pharmacy Distribution is a low margin, which has significant fixed cost leverage.

    With this business model a small decrease in sales leads to a large decrease in profit.

    Now look at Symbion's and Sigma's lastest result presentations. You will notice a significant increase in their Pharmacy distribution revenue. Compare this to PBS growth over the period and you will notice that both players have picked up significant market share.
    It is a zero sum game so one can deduct with certainty that API has lost market share (I estimate in the range of 3-5%) And I haven't even mentioned the fact that DHL is now a full-line distributor in the industry.
    These customers are sticky and are most likely locked into 3 yr contracts a.k.a the Embrace program.

    So I wouldn't expect a strong earnings result this half or year......

    Now I'm sure everyone will start pushing the benefits of industry consolidation and how Sigma or Symbion could increase their marigns due to the benefits of fixed cost leverage with they could acquire API's customer base. And you would be right!

    However you will never see these benefits because:
    1). API's board is over paid and they want to keep their jobs and wouldn't except $2.20

    2). The ceo at Sigma, Emlo is a tight cost manager and will never pay up more then $2.20

    3). There is a substantial risk that if Sigma or Symbion bought API and paid half the benefits from the synergies to API shareholders that the Government would just turn-around and cut the regulated wholesale margin, as soon as they started earning excess returns.
    This is because the Government is looking to cut down on health care spending with an ageing population (you have already seen this with generics)

    So my advice is don't listen to your "broker" do some research for yourself and if you can rebut my arguements then buy the stock.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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