The more I think about it, the more I believe that CAP is pushing back on ASI in order to bring in a new partner entirely.
CAP don't want ASI to control the company, this is obvious. CAP therefore must exercise their pre-emptive rights and buy the 40% from the liquidator or ASI will buy it. For CAP to buy it they need cash that they currently do not have. Nick would not dare raise capital (issue new scrip) at the current share price. So he has to strike a deal with another party to get the cash for the 40% stake and then give the new partner equity out of this stake. This would pi$$ off ASI massively and would leave them with two options. 1) sell down their holding which they could probably do as the new partner would likely be on the buy side. They would cut their loses on what they have put in the ground and that's that. 2) They launch a takeover.
I'm sure though they won't sit idle if another partner was introduced, they can't. Their mandate is to control CAP for the purpose of supplying their end user affiliates. Chinese will save face at all costs so I believe that we will see a new partner come in and then ASI will launch a bid assuming.........ASI has access to the funds to do so, that's the kicker. Whether they could then develop Hawsons is another story.
That's enough crystal ball gazing for one day. But I do feel strongly enough about the scenario that I'm increasing my holding.
CAP Price at posting:
21.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
