PortfolioPlus - Thanks for the kind words. I am feeling a few...

PortfolioPlus - Thanks for the kind words. I am feeling a few scars today. I also first came across TIM through that certain newsletter. I was also thinking about the lessons learned from this this afternoon, but I fear your advice may not be enough in some instances.

I wholeheartedly agree that there is little inherent in being an 'investment advisor' that makes them know what is going on. I seem to recall one newsletter saying after the fact something to the effect of that they just took the company's word for it and didn't do their own follow through (that one grated on me a bit!).

I don't blindly follow others advice and do as much of my own research as possible, but that isn't enough. I took the recommendation as a starting point and did my own research. I read through annual reports, newpaper articles, ASX notices, listened to interviews, and then sat down and then did the math. It all seemed to stack up pretty good.

Where it all fell down was the amount of information on debt and the conditions relating to that debt. As far as I can tell, this was not public information, or there was not enough to make a reasonable determination. I don't suspect that the average investor will ever have access to enough information to make good decisions and will have to take some things on faith with the expectation of being burned occasionaly or just get out of it all together.

If I had taken the advice of Ben Graham (the original intelligent investor), I wouldn't have been picking my own stocks at all. It would have been straight into a cheap index fund and that would have been that. I would have realised that I did not have the time or the contacts to really make an informed decision.

But heck, where is the fun in that? I love reading about companies, trying to figure out what they do and how they will perform. I love taking a punt on a speculative stock trying to find which one will come good. Hmmm, I think I am also enjoying a good whinge when things don't turn out so rosey after all (I'm sure that wouldn't be the case if I had serious money on this business).

Yet there is still more to think about with TIM. Although I thought I understood the actual business side of things, I realised a bit later that I didn't understand the investor side of the MIS as much as I should have. Once the doubtful debt provision increased, I started looking into this in a bit more detail (maybe nine months too late!). I still don't know the expected returns from being a Timbercorp MIS investor, and this may now be a key in TIM's survival. If these investments are good enough, then I suspect TIM's bank will give them quite a bit of leeway. If they don't stack that well, then they would probably try to pull the plug and get what they can, bugger the rest of us.

Even after today I think I still like the company. I sold all my TIM and TIMPB, but found myself with a chunk of TIMG a little later. To answer a question on another thread (who is buying this stuff?), well I am. Put in a little bit and if it goes bust, that's the price of my entertainment. If TIM pulls through, the last few months will all be worthwhile (but please, don't take my word for it DYOR!).

Best of luck everybody.