AP is a stock that is always in the grip of sentiments positive...

AP is a stock that is always in the grip of sentiments positive and negative.   Everybody knows that the announcement stream is extremely patchy and tantalisingly under-informative. We have all been disappointed when we've thought it was about to pop, only to get setback news.  But anybody who knows it knows that the potential is huge.  Likewise anybody who knows it knows that the day a successfully packaged MEMS chip is announced as being ready to demo is the day that the SP will leave a gaping hole in the cloud base.  So everybody also has one finger on the trigger.  Any rumour will therefore elicit a rapid and fairly extreme response.  The SP is currently responding to something, but we don't even have any rumours to pin it on!

This is a stock that cannot be predicted from charts built on past history, because recent history is all based on uninformed sentiment feeding solely on itself.  It can go from sputtering ember to raging flame in minutes - and back.  But once a definitively positive announcement is made everybody knows that it will only go in one direction.  And that is what we are all waiting to hear.  The most recent announcements (29/8 and 30/8) were all fairly clear inasmuch as they gave us strong confidence to expect a very positive outcome, it was only the waiting period that was left undefined - "a few short months" - another "imminent" promise.  "Are we there yet?" "Almost."  

However it is worth re-reading the actual commentary from the 30/8 report to see just how positive the announcement actually was

" ... As previously reported exhaustive testing and analysis conducted on wafers exposed a critical need to further optimize the performance and fabrication of the device’s “dissipation layers”.Among the many attractive aspects of our speaker is its form factor. The emergence of electrostatic forces as the dominant actuation methods in micro and nano devices (MEMS and NEMS), make these value propositions possible, as electrostatics offers one of the highest energy densities available. The ability to use relatively standard micro fabrication technologies and reasonable integration methods to form a single- chip system enables the production of efficient, low-power, fast-response actuators. Consequently, electrostatics resides at the heart of the Company’s MEMS speaker technologies.The challenges we along with the rest of the MEMS industry face relates to electrostatic actuation. The interaction between the strong electrostatic fields and the various materials, forming our MEMS chip, is complex, non-linear and depends on numerous parameters. To achieve operational stability devices must suppress and control effects that are intrinsic to electrostatic fields; effects such as stiction, adhesion, material breakdown, electrical discharge and dielectric charging. Further complicating matters is that accurate modelling is extremely difficult if not impossible due to the very complex interaction between electrostatic fields and the imperfections intrinsic to any manufacturing process. Dielectric charging is consider by industry to be the key failure mechanism of electrostatically actuated MEMS devices, as the parasitic charges that get trapped inside the dielectric layers produce undesired effects such as voltage drifts, capacitance shifts and stiction of moving parts. There are several proven methods to deal with the adverse effects of dielectric charging and other issues related to electrostatic actuation, however each solution must be uniquely designed, tailored and specifically fine-tuned to match the particular characteristics and attributes of the device. Such solutions are highly complex as at least to date, the industry lacks suitable physical models to accurately predict the charging characteristics of the device and its susceptibility to dielectric charging.In our particular case, in order to produce the desired acoustic output, the number of pixels "actuating" at every clock must be precisely controlled. The dielectric charging is highly disruptive, as operation voltage drifts, capacitance shifts and stiction all throw off the precision control and timing required to produce the sound. As a result, the number of moving elements ("pixels") triggered at every clock varies from the nominal values as some triggered pixels remain stuck while others release and move instead of remaining immobile. This deficiency in the control of the pixels translates into audible noise and noticeably impacts acoustic performance.In order to suppress such undesirable effects of electrostatic actuation, the Company developed a unique “charge dissipation mechanism” that was tested and utilized through all the earlier phases of development. As was previously reported testing revealed that our dissipation layers and / or its fabrication needed further optimization. A series of improvements to the dissipation layer were made and all early indications were that our requirements could be met.The wafers delivered with the changes indeed exhibited a very significant improvement to the dielectric properties of the device. This enabled the Company to advance to acoustic testing of the devices and from there to implement the systems sound reproduction capabilities. While acoustic testing produced exciting results, the sound produced did not meet our qualitative expectations.A few months ago, the company decided to conduct far more comprehensive forensic analysis of electrostatic effects that are in play in our structure. The Company developed new measurement tools and techniques that enabled us to identify the various charging mechanisms in play in our devices. The data collected and analysed revealed that the dissipation layer was not reliably suppressing charges when stressed with the very demanding control and timing conditions involved in speech and music playback. The Company and the vendor, aided by a number of external experts ultimately determined that the properties of the core material of the dissipation layer were not adequately withstanding the particulars of entire fabrication process and as a result the wafers delivered lacked the stability and reliably required to achieve proper operation of the device.The resulting recommendations were to a) continue to improve the core dielectric material of the dissipation layers, b) modify the fabrication process as to enable the use of alternative dielectric materials that have been proven to be less prone to charging and other adverse effects of electrostatic actuation and c) utilize two specific proprietary alternative methods to supress charges.Before committing to a new process, the Company and vendor immediately launched a series of trials to validate the recommendations and performance of the new dielectric material, all of which showed extremely convincing results. On that basis the Company and vendor redesigned the fabrication process flow were needed and have already begun to produce a large number of wafers that implement the changes and recommendations. To the extent possible management and the vendor are convinced that the adjustments currently underway will resolve the final hurdle facing the company in producing and introducing our industry altering technology. ... "

It is important to grasp the level of confidence expressed in the progress made to date, as this progress is expressed as being incontrovertible.

If negative outcomes in this process had occurred, based on the positive tenor of announcements to date, we could have expected to have been told by now, and we haven't been, so I think we can carry on under the same positive expectations.  

Without stating the obvious too baldly, time has passed, and serious R&D and process optimisation has been in progress throughout.  And from all accounts AP has enlisted some very credible expertise to advance the state of the art of MEMS fabrication towards the goal.  So we can expect that we are a lot closer to a working chip now than we were in August.  So that hoped for time is coming closer every day.  Like Vlad I wish I'd had more cash to throw at this stock a few weeks back, but I don't.  But I think I'm ready.