SCY Scandium International (stock is TSX, deposit is Nyngan)
I like the idea of a scandium-only speculation and there are not many around, but I will stay on the sidelines for the time being on Scandium International, preferring PGM even though PGM is a mess and
on paper SCY is well developed.
The issues I have with investing in them are as follows:
1. Their take-off appears to be is with a JV partner for scan-alu master alloy. While the tonnage is impressive 225 tpa, this is for a product that has just a very small fractional scandium percentage. So even if actualized the scandium volume is pretty small. And I cannot penetrate the financial details of the joint agreement; so as far as real income potential, even the take-off cannot guarantee much in terms of income to SCY.
2. The capex is reasonable. But the study figures are with $2000/kg scandium oxide, with a cost of $557 kg C1s. The trouble here is that Uncle Bob is going to murder them on costs, and has already telegraphed that the price is going to be $1500 per kilo. So the study figures are being blown up in advance
by Uncle Bob.
Now CLQ's c1 scandium costs are not known precisely, but the C1 co=product costs on the nickel and cobalt are under $5, and the volumes are quite large. Their respective co-product costs will be very close.
The scandium co-product costs will be similar but the circuit is a separate circuit, and some additional co-product costs must be assumed for the scandium production. But they are not going to be that great.
For my own purposes, I am assuming CLQ will have C1 cash costs that are double the costs for nickel and cobalt; this still puts CLQ at under $10 per pound on scandium. The CLQ scandium production will
be in the form of scandium hydroxide, which will be stockpiled and converted to scandium oxide when required for clients. So an additional cost to convert scandium hydroxide to scandium oxide.
How much can that cost ? $20 a pound ? $50 ? $100 ? Whatever it is, CLQ will be way under the C1 costs of SCY and other scandium-only projects.
This of course also has implications for PGM, and is the main reasons why I was distressed at the Board's strategy to go as a scandium-only project. However I am still interested in PGM over SCY,
for these reasons:
-Proximity to Uncle Bob and Sunrise
-Other minerals in PGM deposits even though they are being ignored
-Lower market cap and distressed prices. PGM is depressed.
GLTAH
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