a higher bid likley, page-18

The Eureka Report article by Ivor Ries that you guys are referring to is one of the sanest, best informed articles I have read on the big picture context driving the great Queensland/New Qatar Gas Rush.

I've long said Asian customers simply can't rely on all their LNG passing through the straits of Hormuz, that any Nth American surplus is expensive gas and geographically confined, possibly time confined as well, eg a couple of decades.

What I wasn't aware of was that (that Ivor Ries states) is that Indonesia this week announced it is going to cease exporting from Bontang and Arun. I knew that they were developing import terminals in Java, but really ceasing to be a gas exporter is a biggie. With 240mm people and a rapidly growing economy perhaps it should be no surprise to us.

We know the big four gas resources are 1)The USA (domestic only), 2) Russia (sell your soul first, depend on it at your peril), 3) Iran (yes, when), 4) Qatar (about full house on LNG development when current construction complete, and as with Iran all goes through Straits of Hormuz).

There's a sprinkling of new supply from Peru, Egypt, Nigeria (your peril), Angola, Gabon but nothing like what's planned for Australia.

Why Australia? Because just like the sweet spot moved over Indonesia/Malaysia decades ago, then Qatar recently for something close to 80 mmtpa capacity, it has now moved over Australia. Economics, resources, geography and geopolitics are all in alignment.

Maybe even WPL is still a buy, AOE is certainly not a sell imho.

EL