a couple of questions

I am a regular reader of this site and thank you to all the contributors. I am a private investor with a fairly substantial holding, certainly as regards the funds I have available. I am currently 60% down which hurts.

It is interesting to read some of the back-posts particularly around early 2011 as regards S.P. projections, buy recommendations at various levels, anticipated takeover bid pricing, and compare them to the current sentiments of the same “posters”.

What I am having a problem understanding is why has the S.P. come-off so dramatically and why has there been such a turnaround in sentiment when:
1. The size and grade of the resource has increased considerably from when the S.P. peaked.
2. There has been a change in management, however, the team in charge has a proven track record, and irrespective of whom this team is, the extent and quality of the asset remains, and if anything continues to grow.
3. The cost / ton of the resource has now been proven to considerably below the majority of alternative sources of the mineral. A fact that was not known when the S.P. peaked.
4. The venture requires considerable finance in uncertain economic times, however, the cost of the infrastructure is projected to come down ±$500m and recent developments as regards investment in Potash ventures also indicate that there is an appetite.
5. The S.P. has absolutely no correlation the NPV of the project, as well as the fact that the NPV stands to increase considerably as the actual extent of the resource is established along with a projected reduction in infrastructure costs.
6. The commodity price may have come-off, however, based on an inevitable increase in demand will recover.

Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks.