Orocobre was the 4th most shorted stock on Wednesday, Galaxy...

Orocobre was the 4th most shorted stock on Wednesday, Galaxy (another lithium stock with interests in Argentina) was 3rd. The market hates uncertainty, and to be honest, if I wasn't already invested in ORE, I would be sitting back and waiting or putting my money somewhere else until the dust clears.

Because it is a dust storm, impossible to predict with any accuracy the net effect financially of the tax, as well as impossible to predict the peso/USD exchange rate. If the USD continues to strengthen, for instance, without anything else happening, this will cause more devaluation in the Argentine peso, just as it does for the AUD. Temporary taxes are something that cause me concern - you only have to read the history of how and why personal income tax was introduced in the US to realise that the word 'temporary' was frequently used. Taxes imposed during WWII for instance are now permanent, because the government and bureaucracy expanded so much during WWII that in order to maintain those costs, they needed to keep paying personal income tax.

Variables here include the peso to USD exchange rate, whether Macri's cuts and taxes will have the desired result, whether Macri will win next year's election or the socialists will go back in, how the IMF manages their end of things regarding the loan to Argentina, what the price of lithium will be (a rise in this alone could compensate for the new tax), whether companies like ORE will have to pay more pesos in salaries and costs to Argentinian suppliers (one would assume there will be increasing pressure to do so because of inflation and the rising costs of living).

The thing that gives me some hope is that Orocobre has a small 'moat' in terms of cash, sales, and partnerships. This should grow bigger over the next year or years so they can weather these types of events more smoothly. Like a small ship versus an ocean liner sailing through a storm, the risk of sinking will become a lot less as the company gets bigger.