PDN 5.94% $8.20 paladin energy ltd

7m lb gone from 2019 Sec Supply models

  1. JID
    3,568 Posts.
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    Afternoon Guys,

    This news today from the US further builds the bullish narrative in terms of supply tightening. This time in the secondary market:


    DoE_Secondary_Supply_2019.png

    Link: https://www.exchangemonitor.com/con...ranium-barter-program-doe-cleanup-portsmouth/


    From Mike Alkin's 2017 presentation this means c. 7m lb is withheld from the secondary supply market in 2019:


    U_Underfeeding_3.png


    The importance is that in a market where producers are now exhibiting a coordinated supply discipline further tightness is going to occur next year.


    From my reading, not a single analyst has factored this continued DoE suspension of uranium sales into their models post the current US Federal Government Fiscal Year.


    This is the equivalent of 2 x LHM taken out of the supply side of analysts models for 2019, and IMO this is also structural beyond 2019.

    Cheers
    John
 
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