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Nice one WAG

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ViperX1

477 Posts.

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24/07/18

21:24

Post #: 34544748
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Originally posted by What A Gas ↑

We are talking of a 30c plus valuation at the moment - that is what this thread is about is it not?

Well this is my take on it, with which others may or may not agree.

I assume an average buy in price of 6c [still eminently achievable].

I assume a 30c valuation POST unambiguously successful trial.

I assume a 3c valuation post a trial failure [I discount a total wipeout as it is almost untenable that there will be virtually zilch signs of efficacy]. Thus I am only risking 50c per $1 invested.

I assume a 75% chance of trial success (this report of which we are talking assumes 65%, but I regard it as higher than that).

Thus, I assess probability based odds of success as 3/1 ON, odds of failure 3/1 AGAINST, but odds on offer are a massive 9/1 [3cps to 30cps (as I am only risking half my investment)].

Those sort of odds are hard to pass up. Imagine getting odds of 9/1 on Winks in her next race.

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Nice one WAG

FTT Price at posting: 5.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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