Not that I'm complaining but if Marc sent you the report in good...

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19/07/18

16:31

Post #: 34455681
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Originally posted by smallbear ↑

I've read the report and it's good. I wish everyone could read it but I obviously can't share it as it is property of Lodge Partners but I will summarise a few key points for the benefit of shareholders.

1. Marc's estimate of the probability of success in the trial is 65%. This is informed by the aggregate wound closure chart that has been shared by the company at the 91st patient mark. This compares favourably with the average industry wide success rate of 30-40% at phase II. Marc believes that the current share price of FTT implies the market is pricing just an 11% change of success - thus the enormous opportunity to own the shares at these prices.

2. The current valuation of 33.5c and post-trial valuation of 52c are derived by comparison to Smith & Nephew's 2012 acquisition of Healthpoint Biotherapeutics and their VLU drug HP802 which was in phase III trials and valued at $600m. This is another good reference point along with Scioderm example which I have previously highlighted that shows the current valuation of FTT is out of sync with the reality of the wound care market and what a strategic buyer would be willing to pay.

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Not that I'm complaining but if Marc sent you the report in good faith then perhaps even revealing key points about the analysis is "just not cricket"

FTT Price at posting: 5.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Not that I'm complaining but if Marc sent you the report in good...

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