$50-60 New Normal or U.S Shale Bubble?, page-805

For the record I have sold out of this one and wish the best for long term holders to recover their money.

It is still quite undervalued but the takeover could cap the gains if agreed, I figure I am too small to fight it though my preference is always to buy long term for dividends.
So my sentiment remains hold.

I also have quite a few other uses for the money and that's a factor, if I had lazy capital then I would HOLD but I keep finding opportunities.

Time for a post-mortem.

At my average price of $3.5 on 41,000 shares I booked roughly $100,000 profit or 100% P.A. return - when I adjust my position size by time held.
This was better than the comparable return from buying and holding ASX200 over the same period.

I made a lot of mistakes in this one and learned an awful lot, in many ways my process was wrong and I was lucky. Picking the biggest company hid a lot of sins - 2015 was far too early to start buying and the debt back then was outrageous.

It may have buried a smaller company.

The pulled out some blinder capital raisings to get themselves out of the hole it was pretty sick and at each raising shareholders could participate pro-rata (unlike AWE and MRM). Having said that I think they would be wishing that they hadn't sold Kipper with the hole in the GLNG gas book.

I now know that you have to attune yourself to the cycle of earnings in any business, not just buy on a big decline. It can take years if not a decade for a business to recover. That's quite a lost opportunity of dead money waiting to be recovered.

If it was easy everyone would be doing it.

It's very easy to lose a lot of money quickly if you aren't careful in the commodity cycles, I could as well have bought S32 or ORG and done nicely, just like CDD could have easily been MND.

My remaining ASX200 holdings (previously disclosed) are:
83,000 SHJ
96,000 CDD
66,000 TWR

I effectively paid negative $100,000 for this portfolio with contributions $40,000 from PRG, $30,000 from AWE and $5,000 from SMX (approximately) in the last 15 months adding to STO.

I have it in good authority that I have just been lucky, well I intend to carry on being "lucky" just spare myself from the shouting of the herd by keeping opinions to myself.

GLTA