exploration carries risk .........
so EMV is a reasonable method to assess value .......
in Oz - most of the fields are smallish ......say 2-5mm bbl.'s .......risk circa 30-40%.......cost (onshore 3-7m)......
in shale / CSM type plays - resource is stated as % Rf * GIP / sq km's (or metric equiv)........HOWEVER - the flow rate per well and EUR/well have a range of outcomes ......so its a distribution curve ................
there are quite a few good stufies in the USA to highlight this ........
http://www.aie.org.au/AIE/Documents/APPEA-Cost-Report_Final.pdf
this is quite old - but does show how costs escalated with OP .........
the "development costs" are irrelevant .........(b/c it depends on what the stuff is and what scale (ie export vs dom market) .......
the "F" part of the curve highlights the maturity of Oz exploration .........
rgds
V_H
exploration carries risk ......... so EMV is a reasonable method...
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