$50-60 New Normal or U.S Shale Bubble?, page-720

I think trying to predict is a bit of a fools errand as so many factors are involved. IEA has consistently underestimated demand growth and revised up each year.
I don't see a lot of value in these forecasts but instead watch the tight oil rig count and comparative inventory oil drawdown each week.
(Actually not every week just now and then as I look at things in months and years not days or weeks).
The rig count stands at 745, if it rises back to 1000 then we could see 1mbpd. That is a function of:

• Access to capital to fund uneconomic drilling or
• Based upon the prevailing oil price: access to economic drilling opportunities.

There just aren't as many of those opportunities as the various agencies have been led to believe and I don't think they have bothered to "check under the hood".
This is a massive failure, obviously various analysts are too close to industry to perform the kind of critical analysis required.