$50-60 New Normal or U.S Shale Bubble?, page-651

The short answer is I don't know, I wish it would happen quickly but I fear it won't - either way we get plenty of warning and based on what's happening now it won't occur before these decline rates of conventional oil fields bite us in the ass. If the facts change I will change my opinion but that's how it looks right now.
I don't do projections of long term future.

• I think Tesla is overvalued - a lot of switched on people shorting it. Elon Musk wants to change the world, that would be great I hope he does but car manufacture is a very competitive industry. Doubling the world's production of batteries sounds great in theory let's see how it works out in practice. It's a critical time for them as the market waits for the promise of the Model 3. The biggest sign of trouble there was the solar city merger (bailout of Elon's mates).
• BYD Auto in China and GM are actually presently larger players in this space, with GM subsidising their Bolt EV and BYD's "new energy vehicles" government subsidised.As you say these actually run on natural gas effectively.
• Even if the optimistic projections are true then it will be some time before electric vehicles replace the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) fleet. What we can observe today is that almost all new cars are still ICE, there will be plenty of warning before that changes and unless it happens soon depletion will more than compensate.
• Also much oil is used in furnaces, manufacturing, transport of goods etc regardless of personal transport.