I am always willing to learn from mistakes but by the same token I am still holding 35,000 STO @$4 and will continue to do so.
The most important lesson to me is that there is never certainty and it pays not to be overconfident. When tough times hit and uncertainty is priced in with a healthy safety margin that's the time to buy things like STO but there's opportunity cost.
So rather than being impressed by a story diversify a bit.
Having said that ORG is still not crazy expensive, STO is only marginally cheaper. The tables have turned in that STO now has the stronger financial position so I will be sticking where I am.
W.R.T GLNG, STO had as of 2015 2240 PJ 1P reserves, 3358 PJ 2P reserves and contracts for 2228PJ of contracted supply.
This is enough for a 18 years of production for a plant of 20 year design life. That's a lot of time to find gas and chances are oil will be more expensive along the way with lots of gas found as a byproduct.
It's an issue sure but not a crisis, it's not like the company is buying gas on the Australian spot market and selling it at a loss into the Asian spot market.
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