Hope everyone had a nice day yesterday and is enjoying the long weekend
Lead has bumped up to 95c/lb and trending for a major breakout. Warehoused levels has just hit a new 5 year low.
IMO On a narrowed macro level those invested here have positioned at a very advantageous time;
- Base metals as a whole are on a move
- AUD/USD hovering around the 70c level (well situated for exporters)
For the new faces that have jumped on last week welcome and good luckG1A has some amazing Fundamental and Economic metrics proven and estimated which when combined with de-risking of project funding should rerate us to a significantly higher value than current.
- 100% owned Abra Project
- SOI Ordinaries: 337M and Options: 34.6M
- $AU4.8M as per 4Q 2018
- 60km of drilling completed (
No more drilling planned/required)
- JORc Mineral Resource = 37.4Mt @ 7.5% Pb- JORc Ore Reserve = 10.3Mt @ 8.8% Pb- Average LOM Lead (pure metal) production of 91ktpa
- Average LOM Silver (pure metal) production of 760kozpa- A$528M NPV (
Likely to be higher with the updated PFS)- 50% IRR
- 14-year mine life (
+ 1 year as per updated mine model)- A$97M/year cash flow
- 1.2Mtpa plant throughput
- CapEx requirement of $AU154m total
- Confirmed metallurgical testing results in 96% recovery factor
- Expected to be highest Lead grade concentrate available World Wide
PFS assumptions are
$US0.95/lb and
AUD/USD:73c (
LME prices current at circa $US0.95/lb makes this PFS assumption value fair considering the world class concentrate anticipated. Also note the AUD is currently weaker (better) than the assumed)
Upcoming Milestones;
- PFS review / optimisation – Optimised PFS to be released early-2019 taking into account the increased metal and lower development metres associated with the new mine model prepared in conjunction with the recently released December 2018 Resource
- Offtake – Continued engagement with a select sub-set of the nine parties that already submitted expressions of interest for Abra’s high-value, high-grade lead-silver concentrate with a view to concluding formal offtake arrangements
- Advancing discussions with project financiers and strategic investors – Discussions substantially advanced with traditional project financing banks and strategic counter-parties
- Construction decision and commencement of construction (by mid-2019)
- Completion DFS (mid-2019)
Personally as a Long Term holder I prefer to use a simple NPV/Share to predict possible value to G1A
528M/372M = $AU1.42/share.. apply a fair discount of 50% gives you 71c a share. Significant upside potential. Of course this hinges on the company achieving financing for the project and my valuation is best situated with a high leverage/low dilution financing route.
Overall there is a nice confluence of events setting up here and they way things are going it is highly likely our project and the sector will improve even more
GLTA
(20min delay)
