4C Report - December Half Year 1/4 ly, page-8

Thanks again. I'll have a look into this on the weekend and double check against my numbers.

Re: The 15% of EPV turning into Litigation Income. Your right its a critical assumption.
I get it:

Firstly, directly from management comments.

“Past performance indicates that the Group has generated average gross revenue in excess of 15% of the Estimated Portfolio Value of a case at the time it is completed (Long Term Conversion Rate). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of the future performance and the Long Term Conversion Rate may vary materially over time. By providing this information, IMF is not in any way whatsoever providing earnings guidance for future periods.”
Source: Note 1 to the ASX Announcement dated 2/2/17 Case Investment Portfolio at December 31 2016.

Given that IMF directors are litigators (who specialize in actions against other firms that provide incorrect earnings guidance) you can expect their disclaimer.

Secondly, I calculated the actual value that IMF has experienced (see the table below). For the past 6 years you can see that actual Litigation Income (LI) has averaged 18.65% of the Claim Value (CV) which makes the 15% a touch conservative.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
0	Date completed	Matter name	Claim Value	Litigation Income	LI % of CV
1	2016	Totals	540,932	99,652	18.42%
2	2015	Total	540,000	92,339	17.10%
3	2014	Totals	395,000	75,908	19.22%
4	2013	Totals	243,000	43,907	18.07%
5	2012	Totals	625,000	117,806	18.85%
6	2011	Totals	270,000	57,853	21.43%
7
8			2,613,932	487,465	18.65%

It has never been as low as 15% and is remarkably resilient around the 18% range.

Also - While the above two methods are sound in working out the actual number I also tried to derive it (with a bit of difficulty). It is a very rough but the 15% LI of CV can also be thought of as “average settlement value” (50% of claim value) and the “average IMF fee” of (30% of the settlement value). (50% x 30% = 15%). This bottom up calculation is hard to get because a lot of the settlements are confidential.

Looking at your post there might be some differences between the "Maximum Case Investment Portfolio" and the EPV (Estimated Portfolio Value). I'll have to make sure i am comparing like for like all the way through my model.