Looking at LME and zinc price history, the sudden sharp rise in...

Looking at LME and zinc price history, the sudden sharp rise in price began in 2006 when LME levels were around 300,000 tonnes and falling. The price rise came off an average price of between 0.4 and 0.6 USD/lb. The average over the last 5 years has been between 0.8 and 1.0 USD/lb. In 2006 the Shangai exchange was of little value, whereas now it is of higher value. Therefore this time around I think we may need to have LME levels touching 250,000 tonnes before any rapid price rise starts. That is only 130000 tonnes below where we are now. It has taken 5 months to drop 130000 tonnes (since December). However, every August there has been an influx in to the LME, the largest of which was 200000 tonnes. It is widely assumed this was Glencore dumping all its product at once. Discounting this event the influx has been between 50 and 100000 tonnes. Assuming a further 100000 this northern summer, we should hit 250,000 tonnes around February next year. This should be the start of a sudden and sharp price movement upwards that may peak mid 2018. Given its higher starting base this peak might mean zinc prices hitting 3.0 USD/lb. The time to accumulate in earnest may be after August / September this year. However, remember that with resources you are better being 2 years early then 10 mins late.