Not sure I agree with your logic. The outlook for TIM is clouded by the uncertainty relating to refinancing as they have reasonably high debt level.
Their first crunch point I think is when TIMPB comes up for exchange. They will of course exchange with equity but they will need to re-finance at that point. TIMPB issue is $80 million. This is a small part of total debt so I sense they will be able to refinance this by Sep09. I do not know the details of their other debt.
I continue to believe the opportunity exists to buy TIMPB and short TIM. TIMPB is trading at 60% of face value and there are franked dividends to be had over next 12 months.
TIM Price at posting:
57.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
