I haven't looked at TLT's financial statements in any real...

I haven't looked at TLT's financial statements in any real detail but its debt and nameplate generating capacity seem to be roughly similar to IFN. It's also about to do a rights issue to raise more capital to fund a large-ish new wind farm (Dundonnell) so clearly also not a massive cash generator.

TLT generally seems to be more aggressive in its pursuit of capacity growth then IFN and its market capitalisation is much higher (again, for a similar generating capacity) - likely to have been pumped up by the attempted takeover. For these reasons it looks to me a riskier proposition.

What this also highlights with regard to IFN is that there are various other players out there bringing on additional renewals capacity and increasing supply of "Large scale Generation Certificates" that make up a large proportion of its revenue. As LGC demand is by its nature inelastic (worse, it's a completely artificial government contruct) our models for IFN need to consider some possibility of LGC revenue disappearing.

So for IFN I agree with your watch and wait outlook.