delicate balance at the momentall those forecasts assumed...

delicate balance at the moment
all those forecasts assumed ongoing CB looseness
Japan may be about to ramp up their easing bias, but the fed minutes (a minority advocating QE3 termination in 2013)damped things down a bit.
Still pog bounced from the lows, so still belief at these levels.
hard to get large inflationary movement in a deleveraging, low velocity of money environment, in spite of CB easing.
hence golds slide and range bound action last year.