Here's my 2009 prediction for PTN:Prediction #1Pressure will be...

Here's my 2009 prediction for PTN:

Prediction #1

Pressure will be exerted on the independent directors of PTN (those not aligned to the "responsible entity") to sell off the assets, return the capital and put PTN to sleep forever.

And unit holders, we should all put pressure on the independent directors because this is the only way we are going to get anywhere near our investment back.

Why?

Because PTN does not have a viable business model and can only survive by constant property revaluations. But revaluations are a thing of the past and are possibly some 2-3 years away when the revaluations that occur at that time will simply represent a claw back of the devaluations we are about to face now.

Prediction #2

But there won't be a white knight who wants to take over all of PTN's assets in one go...so the assets will have to sold piece-meal.

The age care portfolio will be the first to go. It will be sold at a loss against book value.

Then the retirement assets will be hawked. Naturally, the smart operators will pick the eyes out of the good stuff.

But overall, there will be a loss against current book value of somewhere between 30% and 50%.

Prediction #3

Dirctors aligned with the responsible entity will agree to this plan but only to the point where PTN gets to a debt free position. Thereafter they will want to continue to run the show so as to extract their very, very generous fee structure.

But as unit holders this will be like owning a prize bull which has been neutered...it ceases to have any relevance or economic possibilities.

Prediction #4

If PTN does liquidate all assets we may get a return of around 30 cents sometime towards the end of 2009.

Having just bought in at a lower price, I for one would be keen to see this scenario played out so as to recover some of my past horrendous losses on this company that should never have listed, as it was set up to benefit the promoters not the unitholders.