@sweatshop was specifically asking about long term investment in STO not short term speculating.
To re-iterate my position is the opposite to dudlie I won't ever take a paper loss unless my investment thesis changes.
The link is amazing in that people can build wonderful structures but when the foundations are in quicksand it's hard to do well.
Traders/speculators are not stupid just misguided, in the land of the blind the one eyes man is king and that's the value investor.
40% of my portfolio is in STO at $3.6 because I can't pick the bottom or predict sharemarket fluctuations, I focus instead on buying businesses at a good price.
I can't pick when exactly a turnaround will happen or give a stuff about quarterly earnings.
STO is that rare large, conservatively financed institution selling at a 50% discount to intrinsic value and I haven't yet found a major flaw.
No-one has yet pointed anything out to me though I have had some wonderful information provided from opposing viewpoints.
My latest case to hold runs like this:
- High east coast gas prices are the cure for high prices, through demand destruction, increased exploration and agreements not to produce into the oversupplied LNG market at oil-linked prices.
- U.S tight oil is a Ponzi scheme funded by speculators, it's CAPEX hell and the claims of low production costs are lies. The claim that Texas has more cheap oil than Ghawar in Saudi Arabia is misleading. The idea that technology can defeat the physical co straint of depletion is complete and utter bullshit.
- STO's profit is heavily exposed to oil prices which should be more like $70 U.S. per barrel although production costs will increase with oil prices (just as they have fallen with the industry in depression). It's shareprice on the other hand depends on a low oil price assumption.
I am not going anywhere until someone tells me why I am wrong, V_H has been the closest but he has not provided information to refute these key points.
GLTA (traders/speculators and investors both).
