VCN 0.00% 11.0¢ vulcan resources limited

plough, the SP is so low because the potential upside of...

  1. 5,334 Posts.
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    plough, the SP is so low because the potential upside of Kylylahti is offset by the potential for a loss at Roseby, which is a MUCH bigger project, and I think the market hasn't yet decided which way it's going to go.

    Let's try a little thought experiment. Say Kylylahti's life-of-mine profit margin is $50M. Assume things go bad for copper and Roseby makes a $25M loss.

    For the unmerged company, VCN holder's profit is $50M.

    For the merged company, it's only $25M plus only 60% of the company is VCN holders, so VCN's share of the profit is only $15M.

    Now assume things go good for copper and Roseby makes, say, $25M profit while Kylylahti stays at $50M (this is unlikely because if Roseby hits boom times, Kylylahti likely will too, but assume this is the best situation for Roseby vs Kylylahti).

    Unmerged profit for VCN is $50M .
    Merged profit is $75M times 60% = $45M. Still a loss for VCN holders even though Roseby turns a profit.

    Now assume the revised Kylylahti DFS adds another $50M profit and you can see that the only thing VCN holders stand to gain from the merger is dilution.

    derosie,

    If they're resorting to calling shareholders to try and sell the merger, that might suggest they're not confident of enough votes for it?

    I don't even know when the voting period ends to be honest. My holding is so small, and it seemed like a foregone conclusion, so I wasn't going to bother voting.

    At the very least, they should put off merger talks until the revised DFS is published and we can take a look at the new economics of Kylylahti.

 
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