Hello fmx_rider,
Midnight and I looked at the Bre-X chart last year I think it was, and the thing is, the chart trajectories look the same for the real mckoy vs scoundrels.It was similar to the poseiden rise, and more recently Cleveland Mining where the scoundrels were Macquarie Execs.
The big rises with Bre-X came after major broking houses came in and the price started to decline before the true revelations of the state of affairs emerged.The Brex-X staock was way ovebough due to speculative fervor.
The salutary lesson from Bre-X may have been behind the strictness of JORC resources etc, but I'm sure someone will get around these one day.Hence as you are well aware,the company has to be very careful in interpretation of results and their implications.The suspension came from complaints to ASX from certain quarters we believe as it was well after the rejected announcement to market.It was done, we suspect, to sow the seed of doubts in the market,and once these have been sown,it takes some time for a company to recovery its tarnished credibility.
This is where Midnight's work has been so useful.There is no massaging the facts, but sensible implication of the facts given the nature of the geology.His 7 Moz may well be conservative.
Having studied several of these meteoric stock rises,there are several common factors:
-rising price of the underlying commodity.Although Midnight correctly says that the ore is so rich,it doesn't make a huge difference, it does change the sentiment to positive.
-the free float. This is low, and probably not too dissimilar to the poseidon free float at the time of its rise
-a period when enough facts are out there to make a decision to speculate.This may be months to years.There are still unknown,such as extraction economics etc,however there are enough hints IMO that this is being solved
-in the final period,widespread promotion of the stock as a way to make a fortune.....we are probably still well away from this.
I am totally biassed as a holder and see the glass as half full,however of the 20 odd stocks I hold, this is the most likely to the mythical 100 plus bagger. If it fails,not much lost and will live to speculate another day.If a winner......no, I won't dream of what ifs but just do the trade right based on the studies of other meteoric rises.
We are still in an accumulation stage at what could be historical low prices if a run occurs.Note significant jumps in the recent price with only low volumes-signs of low free float with most of the shares being in strong hands.
Asculpeous
Fortune Favours the Informed
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