That's right Ajax - it actually suggests 2 things:
- price is being suppressed because of offshore selling
- price is not being overly supported by superfunds
as such, we should not expect to see as big a sell off as we would have if superfunds bought this all the way to 80c.
On this basis, I think we the price fall ex-div should be closer to the 38c cash payment than a higher amount that takes into account the franking credit benefit.