With the numbers presented in the 22/07 Presentation it is pretty easy to do an NPV for the Dom Republic project.
Using a conservative 12% discount gives an NPV for the Project of $79 mill AUD.
Given that EVG have funding in place and are starting construction of the plant it seems pretty low risk. Only major is what happens between now and Jan-11 (when poduction starts) in the price of gold.
Three factors indicate that gold will remain a favoured asset class for that period:
1) Global annual supply has been reducing in absolute terms
2) Countries are historically underweight gold as an asset class for their Foreign Exchange Reserves and are indicating that they will start moving away from USD denominated assets into gold
3) Expectations that US economy may need a third stimulus package and this will increase the US money supply (printing money and thus inflation).
(1-3 all summarised from Charlie Atkiens daily reports)
In addition, EVG have the Ecuador and Venezuelian projects to add to the company's valuation which cannot be valued based on information provided to-date.
Any way you look at it, I think EVG provides a low risk opportunity to obtain some good gains; both from exposure to the gold sector and this small, growth orientated company that is trading well below NPV on only ONE of its ST projects.
Cheers John
EVG Price at posting:
8.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
