I would also doubt $1.75 in near term, but that's the 10% NPV posted by AUT. If the wells are drilled faster subject to sufficient funding, this could increase. At $700k per well, ADI can afford their share of wells for a fair while, and they should be self sufficient soon enough with 6 month payback, plus they have more Yemen cash to come assuming they close a deal soon.
If we waited until the field was fully developed, then the value would be higher I expect as this NPV is quite conservative, that is assuming management don't blow cashflow on other ventures as juniors are prone to do. I see long term value (2-3years) as closer to $3 if they are not taken over. But as a minimum I would expect a merger before then. Make an allowance for oil to rise, and valuations jump quickly.
But even on an extremely conservative basis, the 3 JV members look great, and will all do well.
ADI Price at posting:
26.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
